There is a 60% probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the current warmest year
Following on from statistics revealing an unusually warm UK winter (see previous story here), the Met Office has released its global forecast for spring 2007. Predictions for the entire year – published in January – appear to be coming true.
The potential for a record 2007 arises partly from a moderate-strength El Niño already established in the Pacific, which is expected to persist through the first few months of 2007.
Global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C; There is a 60% probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the current warmest year (1998 was 0.52 °C above the long-term 1961-1990 average).
The UK/Europe forecast for spring 2007 – defined as the months of March, April and May – estimates a 70% probability that the mean spring season temperatures will be above the long-term average over most of western Europe, including the UK.
For the whole of the UK, 2006 was the warmest year on record with a mean temperature of 9.7 °C, 1.1 °C above the long-term average. Ranked warmest years in the series going back to 1914 are:
1) 2006: 9.73 °C
2) 2003: 9.51 °C
3) 2004: 9.48 °C
4) 2002: 9.48 °C
5) 2005: 9.46 °C